UK footfall fell 4.7 percent in October 2026: what the BRC and MRI figures mean before Black Friday

6 November 2026. UK footfall fell 4.7 percent year on year in October 2026 according to the BRC-Sensormatic Footfall Monitor published this week, a sharper drop than the 2.9 percent fall recorded in September. High streets were down 5.2 percent, retail parks down 3.6 percent and shopping centres down 4.1 percent. The MRI Software OnLocation Footfall Index for the same month, published on 5 November, puts the national decline at just 0.7 percent year on year. Two indices, one month, a gap of four percentage points. Anyone who benchmarks their own stores against uk footfall october 2026 numbers needs to decide which figure they are actually measuring themselves against, and why.

What the BRC footfall monitor reported

The BRC-Sensormatic figures, reported by ITV News, show every nation in decline. Northern Ireland was down 3.1 percent, Scotland down 4.3 percent, England down 4.6 percent and Wales down 6.3 percent. September's high street footfall figure was minus 3.0 percent; October's minus 5.2 percent is the worst of the three location types.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said footfall fell sharply in every part of the UK, with low consumer confidence likely a key factor as households dealt with rising inflation and high energy costs. She singled out high streets as hardest hit because stormy weather led many consumers to stay home or choose locations with easy parking. Andy Sumpter, head of consulting and analytics at Sensormatic, said Halloween delivered a brief seasonal uplift but beyond that retailers found little to celebrate. Shoppers continue to prioritise essential spending, and attention now turns to the Black Friday period.

What the MRI OnLocation footfall index reported

MRI's figures, reported by Retail Times, paint a milder picture: UK footfall down 0.3 percent month on month and 0.7 percent year on year. High streets were down 1.9 percent month on month and 2.5 percent year on year. Retail parks rose 0.7 percent month on month and 2.2 percent year on year. Shopping centre footfall rose 2.1 percent month on month and 0.1 percent year on year.

The weekly detail is where MRI earns its keep. In the week of Storms Austen and Boelo (week 42) overall footfall fell 7.7 percent week on week and high street visits fell 13 percent. The half-term week that followed (week 43) rebounded 17 percent week on week, with high streets up 22 percent and shopping centres up 17.1 percent, finishing 2.2 percent above the same week of 2025. A monthly average flattens that swing into something that looks like a steady decline. It was not. It was one bad week and one strong week.

MRI's weekly survey of more than 700 store managers adds a detail that should worry anyone planning November stock: almost three quarters saw fewer impulse purchases than last year. The NIQ Consumer Confidence Index fell 11 points to minus 24 in October. Visitors are still arriving; they are buying less on the way round.

Halloween and the Black Friday footfall 2026 calendar

Sensormatic reported on 2 November that UK store footfall on Saturday 31 October was 29 percent higher than the same day last year and 13 percent higher week on week on high streets. That is the "brief seasonal uplift" Sumpter referred to, and it shows what a themed day on a Saturday can do even in a weak month.

For the weeks ahead, Sensormatic predicts these peak UK shopping days for 2026:

• Saturday 28 November (Black Friday weekend), the busiest day of the year
• Boxing Day, 26 December
• Super Saturday, 19 December
• Saturday 12 December
• Monday 28 December

Note that Black Friday itself, the Friday, is not on that list. The Saturday is. If your rota front-loads staff on the Friday and thins out on the Saturday, the prediction says you have it backwards.

Why minus 4.7 and minus 0.7 can both be true

The two indices disagreed in September too, as we covered in last month's article on the 2.9 percent fall. They disagree again now for the same reason: they count different samples of locations with different methods and weight them differently. Neither is wrong. Neither is your store. A national index tells a chain the direction of the market and roughly how hard the wind is blowing. It cannot tell you whether your Cardiff branch lost visitors because of Storm Austen on the Tuesday or because the car park entrance was closed for resurfacing. For more on where index figures come from and how far to trust them, see our guide to foot traffic data.

One observation from years of installing counters: the stores that argue most with the national footfall figures are usually the ones counting at a single main door. Side entrances, car park doors and mall-side openings often carry a very different mix of visitors, and in a storm week the shift between them is dramatic. Without a count per entrance, a manager sees a total and guesses the cause.

What to do with your own footfall figures before 28 November

Three things matter in the next three weeks. First, split October by week in your own data so the storm week and the half-term week are visible as separate events, then compare each against the same week in 2025 rather than the monthly average. Second, put transactions next to visitors: conversion rate equals transactions divided by visitors, and with three quarters of managers reporting fewer impulse purchases, a flat visitor count with falling conversion is a merchandising problem, not a marketing one. Third, use hourly counts from last year's peak Saturday to set the rota for 28 November and 19 December, by entrance and by hour, not by day.

Vemco Group counts visitors with sensors from partners such as Xovis and Milesight and shows footfall, conversion and occupancy per location in the Vemcount platform. Across 55,000+ installations in 98+ countries, including 800+ malls, the sensors count 60+ million people daily, with a contractual accuracy minimum of 96 percent and typically 98 to 99 percent where lighting, layout and visitor behaviour allow. With 20+ years in people counting and local support, we know that a store's own numbers are the only ones that settle an argument with head office. Details are on the people counting solution page.

Frequently asked questions

Why do the BRC and MRI footfall figures for October 2026 differ so much? The BRC-Sensormatic monitor and the MRI OnLocation index draw on different location samples and use different counting and weighting methods, so BRC reports minus 4.7 percent while MRI reports minus 0.7 percent for the same month. Both are valid readings of their own panels. Treat them as market direction, not as a benchmark for an individual store.

Which days does Sensormatic predict as the busiest UK shopping days of 2026? Sensormatic names Saturday 28 November, the Black Friday weekend, as the busiest day, followed by Boxing Day on 26 December, Super Saturday on 19 December, Saturday 12 December and Monday 28 December. The Saturday after Black Friday outranks the Friday itself. Rotas and stock deliveries should be planned around those dates.

How should a store manager read a monthly footfall decline in their own stores? Break the month into weeks and, where possible, days and entrances, because October contained a storm week down 7.7 percent and a half-term week up 17 percent that cancel out in a monthly average. Then set visitors against transactions to see whether the problem is fewer people or lower conversion. Only after that does a comparison with the national index become useful.

If you want to see your October split by week and entrance, and your conversion rate alongside it before the Black Friday weekend, book a Vemcount demo and bring last year's peak Saturday numbers with you.